Everything the plan assumes, and what would change if an assumption breaks.

00 — Assumptions and Unknowns

Prepared 2026-07-22. Figures verified as of this date unless marked otherwise.

This file is the honesty ledger for the entire plan. Every other file inherits these entries. If an entry here changes, find every file that leans on it and update it. Three sections: (A) verified facts we rely on, (B) working assumptions, (C) hard unknowns that block specific actions.

Owner key: M = Mitchell · MGR = Ready Mortgage manager · CCO = Ready compliance · BRK = brokerage/managing broker · CNSL = attorney.

A. Verified facts we rely on

These were checked against the cited source on 2026-07-22. They are load-bearing: the plan's strategy stands on them. Each still carries a re-verify cadence because programs, lists, and rates move.

#	Fact	Source (2026-07-22)	Re-verify	Owner
A1	Ready Mortgage Lenders LLC holds an ACTIVE Illinois license MB.6850275 (NMLS 1100518), apparent issue 2025-11-13, apparent expiration 2026-12-31	IDFPR MBList.xlsx (authoritative)	Get written company confirmation + manual NMLS Consumer Access screenshot before first outreach; re-check at renewal (Dec 2026)	M / MGR
A2	Ready is NOT an IHDA participating lender	IHDA lender list eff. 2025-12-18 (~161 lenders)	Monthly, and at every manager meeting	M / MGR
A3	apply.readyml.com's license page lists Florida only (MLD996) — stale vs. IDFPR	Company site, fetched 2026-07-22	Until fixed, never link IL clients to it	M / CCO
A4	Ready's public site does NOT list bank-statement, DSCR, hard money, or construction as named products; DSCR appears only in an unverified third-party snippet	readymortgagelenders.com homepage	At manager meeting (IL product menu in writing)	MGR
A5	Conforming baseline 2026 (Cook/Will, 1-unit): $832,750	FHFA news release	Annually (Nov FHFA announcement)	M
A6	FHA 1-unit limit 2026, all IL counties: $541,287	JVM/MadisonMortgageGuys (secondary reporting HUD ML) — cross-check HUD portal before quoting to a borrower	Before first borrower quote; annually	M
A7	Rates: PMMS 2026-07-16 — 30-yr 6.55%, 15-yr 5.93%; $300k P&I ≈ $1,906/mo	Freddie Mac PMMS	Weekly; never quote rates in self-produced material anyway (Reg Z)	M
A8	Illinois permits holding MLO + real estate licenses simultaneously ("no prohibition," IDFPR FAQ verbatim)	idfpr.illinois.gov MLO FAQ	FAQ is salesperson-era wording; written IDFPR confirmation for the broker license is a P1 question	M / CNSL
A9	USDA prohibits same-transaction dual roles (HB-1-3555 §4.2); FHA removed its ban (ML 2022-22) but lender overlays often keep it	Garris Horn analysis; HUD ML 2022-22	Counsel confirms current handbook text before any dual-role deal	CNSL
A10	IL ad rule 38 Ill. Adm. Code 1050.940: every mortgage ad needs company + individual NMLS IDs + nmlsconsumeraccess.org; NMLS ID may not appear on non-mortgage ads without equal-prominence mortgage wording	Cornell LII text of the rule	Get Ready's exact IL disclosure block before first ad-like item	CCO
A11	TCPA autodialer/prerecorded/AI-voice rules have no B2B exemption (FCC 24-17: AI voice = artificial); TSR B2B exemption covers only DNC-registry provisions and (post-2024) no longer shields misrepresentation	eCFR 16 CFR 310 / 47 CFR 64.1200; FCC 24-17	Stable; counsel confirms 815 ILCS 413 B2B scope	CNSL
A12	RESPA §8: no de minimis gift exception; no defraying agent expenses; co-marketing only at documented FMV	12 CFR 1024.14; CFPB RESPA FAQs	Every specific arrangement gets written CCO approval before commitment	CCO
A13	Crosstown Realtors runs a Zillow Flex team (50/50 after Zillow success fee 15–40%, typ. ~35%) and a Hybrid 75/25 no-fee program; Flex tracks a "Zillow Home Loans contact rate" KPI and is subject of Nov-2025 steering litigation (allegations, not adjudicated)	joincrosstown.com; Zillow help center; RISMedia/HousingWire	Before any brokerage decision; litigation status quarterly	M
A14	Cook County DPA reopened 2026-07-20 (up to 5% / $25,000, forgivable, Cook-side only); FHLB Downpayment Plus up to $10,000 (≤80% AMI)	club720.org; fhlbc.com	Funding cycles drain — confirm live before every borrower conversation	M
A15	Fannie/Freddie condo Limited Review sunsets 2026-08-03; HOA reserve minimum rises to 15% effective 2027-01-04	governingdocs.dev, corroborated by KSN law	Watch for agency updates before publishing condo content	M
A16	2026 is Cook County's south/west triad reassessment year; Will County effective rates run ~2.3–2.8% vs 3–4%+ in much of south Cook	Nat'l Law Review; Civic Federation (2019 rates — dated); Ownwell	Rates data is dated/mixed-vintage — present as ranges, never to-the-decimal	M
A17	Harmony Square is open (July 2025) and is NOT the 280-acre former Mental Health Center site (Park-District-owned, demolition, recreation — no near-term housing)	tinleypark.org; park district	Stable	M
A18	Birdeye shows 4.9/5 on 384 reviews for Ready — Florida customers; BBB A+, accredited 2023	Birdeye; BBB profile, both fetched 2026-07-22	Before any advertising use (needs CCO approval anyway); ratings drift	CCO
A19	Fannie LL-2026-04 requires seller AI-governance frameworks; a written AI SOP is now table stakes, not overhead	Fannie Mae LL-2026-04 (2026-04-08)	Present SOP for company approval before AI use on work content	M / CCO

B. Working assumptions

Deliberate choices, not facts. Each is editable; each names the damage if wrong.

B1. Hours baseline: 45–50 hrs/week (35–40 alternative also planned)

Why: New-MLO ramp requires prospecting + learning simultaneously; 45–50 is sustainable without the burnout profile the personality design rules guard against.
If wrong: Calendar files (12, 13, 14) overcommit; outreach cadence slips and the 14-day sequence breaks.
Verify: Mitchell confirms against real life in week 1; recut calendar at day 30. Owner: M.

B2. Compensation placeholder: [BPS_COMP] basis points per funded loan

Why: Mitchell's actual comp plan is unknown; inventing a number would corrupt every financial projection. All money math uses named variables.
If wrong: n/a — it cannot be "wrong," only unfilled. But every income scenario is non-actionable until filled.
Verify: Comp plan in writing at the manager meeting (P0). Owner: MGR → M.

B3. Pilot list: 30 agents (acceptable band 25–40)

Why: Large enough to produce meaningful conversations at realistic response rates, small enough for genuinely personalized touches in 60–90-minute sprints.
If wrong: Too big → personalization collapses into blast behavior (compliance and brand risk); too small → not enough at-bats to learn.
Verify: Review reply/conversation rates at day 30; resize. Owner: M.

B4. Response SLA: acknowledgment within 1 business hour; written, guideline-checked scenario brief within 4 business hours (Mon–Fri) — v0 wording

Why: The Scenario Desk positioning is credible only if the SLA is documented and kept. This is the core promise to the pilot list. Post-red-team (C4): the published SLA claims only what Mitchell controls. "Human-reviewed by my team" and Saturday coverage are v1 upgrades that unlock only on written verification (named reviewer + turnaround; staffed weekend coverage) — files 09 §2.3/§2.5, 16 header.
If wrong: If Ready's ops or Mitchell's calendar can't support it, the differentiator becomes a broken promise — worse than no promise; an unverified "reviewed with my team" is a misrepresentation on a solicitation call (2024 TSR amendments reach B2B).
Verify: Dry-run 5 synthetic scenarios in week 1; confirm reviewer availability and underwriting-question turnaround with MGR in writing before any v1 claim. Owner: M / MGR.

B5. Ready's IL product availability ≈ conventional, FHA, VA at minimum — UNVERIFIED

Why: Site advertises a broad national menu; the plan's "first five products" sequencing assumes at least the agency core closes in IL. Everything Ready-specific is tagged [UNVERIFIED — confirm with manager].
If wrong: If even FHA or VA isn't delegated in IL, the product plan (07) and the first-timer strategy need immediate recut. If bank-statement non-QM isn't available, the Model-F-lite experiment dies (acceptable — it's optional by design).
Verify: Written IL product menu + investor list at manager meeting (P0). Owner: MGR.

B6. IHDA figures ($134,520 income / $610,939 price, Cook/Will) are the 2024-vintage limits; July-2026 refresh pending

Why: IHDA's limits page is JS-gated; new limits apply to reservations dated 2026-07-01+. The 2024 figures are used only to show program fit, never quoted to borrowers as current.
If wrong: Borrower-facing DPA content misstates eligibility — a trust-killer with agents and a compliance problem.
Verify: Pull live figures from ihdamortgage.org/limits (manual browser) before ANY borrower-facing use. Owner: M.

B7. Realtor cell phones are treated as DNC-protected personal numbers

Why: Case law on dual-purpose cells is unsettled; the conservative posture (manual live calls, DNC scrub anyway, IL opener, same-day suppression) makes the classification question moot.
If wrong: Only in our favor — we over-complied.
Verify: Not needed; policy choice. Counsel confirms 815 ILCS 413 B2B scope as a nicety. Owner: M / CNSL.

B8. Movoto June-2026 market figures are relative indicators, not gospel

Why: Redfin/Rocket blocked fetches; Movoto "homes sold" counts look like trailing/quarterly windows in several towns; Mokena/Homer Glen medians skew new-construction-heavy.
If wrong: Directional strategy (the four-town wedge) is robust to it; to-the-dollar quotes would not be. Rule: quote medians as approximate, never per-month volume as fact.
Verify: Illinois REALTORS June release (not yet out 2026-07-22); manual Redfin pulls. Owner: M.

B9. Price-band splits and hours-per-Flex-deal are estimates

Why: No published sales-distribution data (bands derived from medians ±35–40% dispersion); Flex hours/deal (35–60) and conversion (6–15%) come from industry commentary.
If wrong: Zillow economics memo conclusions have margin — but the Flex "no" rests primarily on the structural lender-steering conflict, which is not estimate-dependent.
Verify: Ask Crosstown for actuals if the Hybrid conversation happens. Owner: M.

B10. AI stack pricing ($20 Claude Pro + $20 ChatGPT Plus) per secondary aggregators

Why: Vendor pages change monthly; tier facts marked [secondary — verify on vendor site before purchase].
If wrong: Budget delta is small; tool-to-job mapping unaffected.
Verify: Vendor pricing pages at purchase. Owner: M.

B11. New-but-prepared positioning; never borrow Ready's institutional track record as personal experience

Why: Honesty is the strategy; Reg N/UDAAP make borrowed experience legally dangerous, not just tacky.
If wrong: n/a — this is a standing rule, not a falsifiable claim.
Verify: Every outreach draft screened against it. Owner: M / CCO.

C. Hard unknowns — each blocks a specific action

Nothing below is guessable. Each stays a blocker until answered by the named owner. Cross-referenced in 27_questions_for_mitchell.md.

#	Unknown	Blocks	Who answers	When
C1	Written confirmation of IL license MB.6850275, lender-vs-broker capacity in IL, and the exact IL disclosure block (NMLS IDs, EHL, state language) [UNVERIFIED — confirm with manager]	ALL outreach, email signatures, social profiles, any ad-like item	MGR + CCO	Manager meeting, week 1 (P0)
C2	Actual IL-approved product menu, investors, overlays — incl. whether FHA/VA/USDA/bank-statement/DSCR/203(k) close in IL [UNVERIFIED — confirm with manager]	Product one-pager, all product content, Model-F-lite experiment, first-five sequencing	MGR	P0
C3	Comp plan → fills [BPS_COMP]	Every income scenario, financial model, goal-setting	MGR	P0
C4	Whether IL loans are processed/underwritten/closed in-house, and realistic IL turn times [UNVERIFIED — confirm with manager]	Any operations claim to realtors; the SLA promise's back end	MGR	P0
C5	IHDA: will Ready pursue participating-lender approval (needs U.S. Bank MRBP)? If not, which alternative DPA (Cook County pairing, Chenoa-style, DPP via member bank?) can Mitchell actually deliver?	DPA positioning, product #4, first-timer content claims	MGR	P0–P1
C6	NMLS Consumer Access full state-license list + Mitchell's own MLO record (site 403'd automated fetch — 5-minute manual browser job)	Compliance folder completeness; "licensed in IL" citation hygiene	M	Week 1
C7	Ready's outside-business-activity (OBA) policy: will they approve an active IL real estate broker license in writing?	Entire brokerage decision (21); activating the broker license at Crosstown Hybrid / Fathom / eXp	MGR + CCO	P1
C8	Ready overlays on FHA dual-role; VA Handbook 26-7 position; Reg Z 1026.36(d) treatment of commission + LO comp on one deal	Any same-transaction dual role (year-one rule already: never)	CCO + CNSL	P2 — deferred by design
C9	Marketing/compliance workflow: who approves Mitchell's IL marketing, turnaround time, whether the "internal marketing team" supports a lone IL MLO, and whether A+ BBB / 4.9-of-384 may be cited	Content calendar go-live; co-branded materials; any review/rating claim	CCO + MGR	P1
C10	Whether Ready holds a National DNC Registry Subscription Account Number, and its telemarketing/texting policy	Any calling beyond verified office landlines; any texting platform	CCO	P1
C11	July-2026 IHDA income/price limits (JS-gated tool)	Any borrower-facing DPA number	M (manual pull)	Before first borrower conversation
C12	E&O on both sides (brokerage policy's mortgage-activity exclusion; Ready's policy's real-estate exclusion)	Dual-license activation	BRK + MGR	P1–P2
C13	Crosstown specifics if Hybrid is pursued: local Zillow fee %, FUB contact ownership on exit, dual-licensed-MLO policy, written ICA	Brokerage seat decision	Crosstown (M asks)	P2
C14	Company AI policy: written approval of the AI SOP and tool list (expect "no" on Kimi; plan loses nothing)	AI use on any work content beyond public research	CCO	P1
C15	Ready's HECM support model and renovation (203k/HomeStyle) availability	Defer/refer scripts for reverse; renovation content angle	MGR	P2
C16	Whether Ready is first putting an MLO into IL (license ~8 months old; no IL office/reviews/LinkedIn footprint) and its IL loan volume to date	"Now serving Illinois" positioning honesty; expectation-setting with agents	MGR	P1

Standing rule: anything in section C stays out of realtor- and borrower-facing material until its owner answers in writing. When an unknown resolves, move it to section A with its source and date, and update dependent files the same day.

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